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BGonline.org Forums
31S-43 — Rollout
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: 41S-43: data update (Nack Ballard)
Date: Wednesday, 1 February 2012, at 7:23 a.m.
Thanks for the update, Nack. As readers of the BGO Online Match are painfully aware, I am an intermediate player, just beginning to learn openings and replies. If you ignore the playing I did prior to 1989, when I followed the Barclay Cooke school of lead-with-your-chin (and then play a backgame), I have only been playing for about 2 years, since November 2009.
Currently, I am in the process of studying the replies to 21S, 41S and 51S. This thread is very useful because it quantifies the relationship between the three plays 21S-43X, 41S-43X and 51S-43X. Previously, this is a relationship I had only noted qualitatively. Your succinct summary says it all:
The more potent and the more exposed White's builder, the more incentive Blue has to hit (anywhere). X goes from fifth place, to tied, to clearly best.
Just to fill in the gap, I made a rollout of 31S-43. There are no surprises, though. X is very nearly tied with the leader S, while Z is very close in fourth place. I think S is coming in ahead of X and Z because the latter pair both present the opponent with a good 6, while S does not. Based on the X-Z relationship, this rollout comes right after 21S-43, but before 41S-43.
– 51S-43 – [U D7 S9 Z12 X17]
– 21S-43 – [X Z2 S20 D21 U26]
– 31S-43 – [S X7 D14 Z19 H48 U64]
– 41S-43 – [X Z31 S42 D49 U60]
Does this mean that a 10pt builder gives more benefit to White on the opening roll than one on the 11pt? More generally, does the X-Z ordering above gives us the value of the builder in each position? I guess that is the accepted wisdom. This is a question I am interested in.
By the way, do the two Snowie nacbracs you report share the same seed? That is, is the latter an extension of the former?
Message –83652: – 41S-43 – [X Z31 S42 D49 U60 H88] ~10*5
Message 114537: – 41S-43 – [X Z29 S38 D45 U56 H84] ~20*5Mike
[S X6.9 D14.3 Z18.9 H47.7 U64.1] "<=20*10
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 163Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 167
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-aa---E-C---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 43
1. Rollout1 24/20 13/10 eq: -0.1526
Player:
Opponent:46.70% (G:12.17% B:0.59%)
53.30% (G:15.93% B:0.78%)Conf.: ±0.0040 (-0.1566...-0.1485) - [99.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes2. Rollout1 24/21 6/2* eq: -0.1595 (-0.0069)
Player:
Opponent:46.48% (G:11.84% B:0.52%)
53.52% (G:15.35% B:0.79%)Conf.: ±0.0041 (-0.1636...-0.1554) - [1.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 44 minutes3. Rollout2 13/10 13/9 eq: -0.1669 (-0.0143)
Player:
Opponent:46.11% (G:13.18% B:0.59%)
53.89% (G:16.23% B:1.04%)Conf.: ±0.0059 (-0.1728...-0.1610) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes4. Rollout2 24/21 13/9 eq: -0.1714 (-0.0189)
Player:
Opponent:46.25% (G:12.51% B:0.59%)
53.75% (G:16.17% B:0.78%)Conf.: ±0.0058 (-0.1772...-0.1656) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes5. Rollout2 13/10 6/2* eq: -0.2002 (-0.0477)
Player:
Opponent:45.70% (G:12.29% B:0.54%)
54.30% (G:16.74% B:1.07%)Conf.: ±0.0064 (-0.2066...-0.1938) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes6. Rollout2 24/21 24/20 eq: -0.2167 (-0.0641)
Player:
Opponent:45.37% (G:11.49% B:0.58%)
54.63% (G:16.96% B:0.68%)Conf.: ±0.0057 (-0.2224...-0.2110) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64264942
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 64264942
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
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