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Play for the what? one RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 4 February 2012, at 2:58 a.m.

In Response To: Play for the what? (Daniel Murphy)

The score is: White 16, Blue 11 (match to 17 points, post-Crawford play)

Blue to play 43

White	208
Blue	67
Position ID: sG0BAHd2d0cAAA Match ID: QQkuAgABWAAE

#		Ply	Move	MWC
	1	R	9/5 3/off	47.580%
			0.8042 0.6565 0.2143 - 0.1958 0.0000 0.0000 47.580% 47.580% 0.0035 0.0040 0.0045 - 0.0035 0.0000 0.0000 0.294% 0.294%
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1297 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 906433694 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	9/5 6/3	46.330% ( -1.250%)
			0.8249 0.6836 0.1680 - 0.1751 0.0000 0.0000 46.331% 46.330% 0.0053 0.0064 0.0060 - 0.0053 0.0000 0.0000 0.462% 0.462%
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 906433694 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

At this score, 9/5 6/3 is the 4th best play (9/6 4/off and 9/2 are also better).

Trailing 6-away 1-away
Outcome	Match Score	Match Equity
Backgammon	0a 1a	100%
Gammon	2a 1a	48.77%
Single win	4a 1a	31.03%
Loss	6a 0a	0%

Play	Loss	Win	Single	Gammon	Backgammon
9/5 3/off	19.58%	80.42%	14.77%	44.22%	21.43%
9/5 6/3	17.51%	82.49%	14.13%	51.56%	16.80%

Match Equity
Play	Single Win	Gammon	Backgammon	Total ME
9/5 3/off	.1477 * .3103 = 4.58% ME	.4422 * .4877 = 21.57% ME	.2143 * 1 = 21.43%	47.58%
9/5 6/3	.1413 * .3103 = 4.38% MD	.5156 * .4877 = 25.14% ME	.1680 * 1 = 16.80%	46.33%

Messages In This Thread

• Play for the what?
  Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 2 February 2012, at 6:10 a.m.
  • Play for the what?
    Stick -- Thursday, 2 February 2012, at 8:05 a.m.
    • Play for the what?
      Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 2 February 2012, at 7:05 p.m.
  • Play for the what?
    neilkaz -- Friday, 3 February 2012, at 3:13 a.m.
  • Play for the what? one RO
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 4 February 2012, at 2:58 a.m.