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Daily Quiz 2/1: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 4 February 2012, at 10:54 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/1 (Daily Quiz)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 140
1 point match
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--A-b-F-CC--c----bacbb--B-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 41

1.XG Roller+24/23 6/2eq: -0.494
Player:
Opponent:		 25.32% (G:5.22% B:0.17%)
74.68% (G:23.65% B:1.19%)
2.XG Roller+9/5 6/5eq: -0.519 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		 24.06% (G:5.53% B:0.18%)
75.94% (G:22.96% B:1.30%)
3.XG Roller+6/5 6/2eq: -0.532 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		 23.38% (G:5.18% B:0.16%)
76.62% (G:24.60% B:1.56%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Looks like a good DQR candidate.

It's a little bit reminiscent of a recent OLM position.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 66
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 98
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBCBC-C---A---A-----aeg-:1:-1:1:43:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 43

1.XG Roller+8/1eq: +1.025
Player:
Opponent:		 89.62% (G:26.51% B:1.12%)
10.38% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller+16/13 8/4eq: +0.984 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		 88.59% (G:24.95% B:1.13%)
11.41% (G:0.80% B:0.01%)
3.XG Roller+16/12 8/5eq: +0.980 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		 88.97% (G:23.42% B:0.99%)
11.03% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller+12/5eq: +0.968 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		 88.06% (G:24.04% B:1.06%)
11.94% (G:0.50% B:0.01%)
5.XG Roller+16/12 4/1eq: +0.965 (-0.060)
Player:
Opponent:		 88.53% (G:22.91% B:0.95%)
11.47% (G:0.73% B:0.01%)
6.XG Roller+8/4 6/3eq: +0.961 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:		 88.20% (G:23.30% B:1.02%)
11.80% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)
7.XG Roller+16/9eq: +0.960 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		 88.43% (G:22.76% B:1.04%)
11.57% (G:0.71% B:0.01%)
8.XG Roller+12/9 8/4eq: +0.958 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent:		 87.43% (G:24.57% B:1.09%)
12.57% (G:0.56% B:0.01%)
9.XG Roller+8/5 8/4eq: +0.957 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:		 85.51% (G:29.52% B:1.65%)
14.49% (G:1.71% B:0.01%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Truncated rollout:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 136
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 34
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aIDc----AA---------bcbbb--:1:1:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 62.25% (G: 47.60% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.75% (G: 4.28% B: 0.19%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.77% (G: 47.58% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.23% (G: 4.36% B: 0.21%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.677
Redouble:+1.332
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.722 (-0.278)
Redouble/Take:+1.095 (+0.095)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.009 (+0.713...+0.731)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.018 (+1.077...+1.114)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 07 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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