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Rollout: Got both of these wrong...go figure

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 4 February 2012, at 10:59 p.m.

In Response To: Got both of these wrong...go figure (Timothy Chow)

Thanks, Paul, for the insight about the opponent's 5's.

In both cases, I played according to the principle of hanging on to the anchor unless the alternative is to rip up my board. However, in this kind of position, it seems that going through the opponent's rolls, while tedious, is essential.





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 66
7 point match
pip: 90
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ACCBBB----------b-bdcBbb-:0:0:1:43:6:6:0:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.Rollout15/2 5/1eq: -0.720
Player:
Opponent:		 13.99% (G:0.52% B:0.00%)
86.01% (G:5.72% B:0.03%)		Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.722...-0.718)
Duration: 28 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 6/2eq: -0.733 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		 13.34% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
86.66% (G:5.52% B:0.03%)		Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.735...-0.731)
Duration: 22 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout122/15eq: -0.751 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		 12.46% (G:0.69% B:0.01%)
87.54% (G:7.67% B:0.02%)		Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.754...-0.748)
Duration: 22 minutes 30 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 43
1 point match
pip: 108
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ACBCBB-----------c-ccbB-:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout124/20 7/2eq: -0.708
Player:
Opponent:		 14.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.39% (G:40.07% B:3.90%)		Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.711...-0.705)
Duration: 15 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout124/15eq: -0.710 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		 14.48% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.52% (G:36.16% B:3.72%)		Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.714...-0.706)
Duration: 15 minutes 09 seconds
3.Rollout17/2 5/1eq: -0.746 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		 12.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
87.30% (G:40.74% B:7.07%)		Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.749...-0.743)
Duration: 12 minutes 04 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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