This is XG1 rollout.
Race is basically even after the roll, so running play doesn't gain much. If Blue runs, he hopes that he will roll another running number before White primes him in. By splitting he stays connected and puts a spare from overstocked mid point to stripped 8pt. White has an advanced anchor,so by splitting Blue makes a bid for an advanced anchor himself, which would equalize the game. 18pt blot is exposed to plenty of shots, but often he has return hits from the bar or rolls like 54 and 43 that make an anchor. If he splits and White rolls 52 or 41 he is getting hit, but White would make 4 or 5pt if Blue chose to run instead. If White rolls 42 or 31 he should not hit [hit is a blunder], but build his home board instead. It is easy to see that after these sequences split gains a lot as he will have plenty of numbers to anchor on 18pt. Split also gives White opportunity to make more mistakes. With 32 he should not hit, but I think a lot of humans will. With 63 White should hit and slot 4pt [he would be better of by making 3pt if Blue run].
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| XGID=---B-bD-B---cE--bc-e----B-:0:0:1:56:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 56 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/18 13/8 | eq: -0.345 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/13 | eq: -0.362 (-0.017) | |||
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| 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Using version 1 | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01