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Odds for Master vs. Fish?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 9 February 2012, at 3:02 a.m.

In Response To: Odds for Master vs. Fish? (Bob Koca)

You're right, I'm missing something.

Say the master and the fish play 1000 matches. If the master is a 65-35 favorite, won't he expect to win 650 of the matches, whether they bet on who wins the match or who wins the variance-reduced match?

Variance reduction is unbiased so it shouldn't affect the expectation, right?

Messages In This Thread

• Odds for Master vs. Fish?
  adambulldog -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 4:00 p.m.
  • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
    Jason Lee -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 4:56 p.m.
    • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
      Jason Lee -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 5:01 p.m.
      • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
        Bob Koca -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 8:18 p.m.
        • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 6 February 2012, at 3:31 p.m.
          • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
            Bob Koca -- Monday, 6 February 2012, at 5:02 p.m.
            • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
              Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 9 February 2012, at 3:02 a.m.
              • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
                Bob Koca -- Thursday, 9 February 2012, at 5:13 a.m.
                • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
                  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 10 February 2012, at 6:45 p.m.
                  • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
                    Bob Koca -- Friday, 10 February 2012, at 9:14 p.m.
  • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
    higonefive -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 4:57 p.m.
  • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
    Stick -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 5:12 p.m.
    • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
      adambulldog -- Monday, 6 February 2012, at 12:07 a.m.
      • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
        Bob Koca -- Monday, 6 February 2012, at 3:13 a.m.
      • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 6 February 2012, at 4:25 a.m.
      • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
        rew -- Monday, 6 February 2012, at 7:32 a.m.
  • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
    David Rennie -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 10:15 p.m.
    • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
      adambulldog -- Monday, 6 February 2012, at 12:51 a.m.
      • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
        Sam Pottle -- Monday, 6 February 2012, at 11:14 a.m.
  • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
    Steve Mellen -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 10:47 p.m.
  • Odds for Master vs. Fish?
    neilkaz -- Monday, 6 February 2012, at 4:04 p.m.