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OLM Sa 02/04/12 ROLLOUT

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 9 February 2012, at 4:06 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 02/04/12 ROLLOUT (Jason Lee)

24/15 or 13/9 13/8, and why -- the Gnubg Temperature Map explains:

Roll	Advantage		Why
	for 24/15	for 13/9 13/8
16	0.6830		Hits from the ace point after 54D.
35	0.5599		Hits from the acepoint after 54D.
34	0.5324		Hits from the acepoint after 54D.
11	0.3785		Blocks 2 checkers instead of 1 behind a 5-prime.
13	0.2487		Blocks 2 checkers instead of 1 behind a 5-prime.
25	0.1286		54R froze the midpoint, so Opp makes the 2 point, exposing a blot on the bar point.
26	0.0647		After 54R Opp makes the 2 point, but only 1 checker is blocked. After 54D Opp plays 62D.
24	0.0621		Makes the 2 point, blocking 2 checkers or 1.
15	0.0605		Makes the 3 3 point, blocking 2 checkers or 1.
45	0.0495
46	0.0405
12	0.0105
36		0.0201	Not much difference, because after 54D our blot is hit with a roll that would have run a checker after 54R.
14		0.0287
22		0.0307
44		0.0556
56		0.2094	Same idea as after 55
23		0.2247	Our 54R blot gets hit with a poor roll.
33		0.3957	After 54D Opp hits us with 33, which is not as bad for us as Opp making the 5 prime and advancing the anchor.
55		0.5416	After 54R, Opp tries to blitz, which may work. After 54R, Opp tries to prime, which probably won't.
66		0.5912	Same idea as after 55

Messages In This Thread

• OLM Sa 02/04/12
  Jason Lee -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 12:56 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    trichard -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 1:00 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    David Rennie -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 1:08 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    Mick Dyett -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 1:59 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 2:30 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 2:52 a.m.
    • OLM Sa 02/04/12
      misja -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 12:28 p.m.
      • OLM Sa 02/04/12
        higonefive -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 1:43 p.m.
        • OLM Sa 02/04/12
          Mr Majestyk -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 2:42 p.m.
          • OLM Sa 02/04/12
            higonefive -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 3:56 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 4:45 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    Rodney Lighton -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 7:52 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    higonefive -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 8:19 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    pontiac -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 9:40 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    Jason Lee -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 2:36 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 7:05 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 5 February 2012, at 10:21 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 02/04/12 ROLLOUT
    Jason Lee -- Thursday, 9 February 2012, at 1:36 a.m.
    • OLM Sa 02/04/12 ROLLOUT
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 9 February 2012, at 4:06 a.m.