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Odds for Master vs. Fish?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 9 February 2012, at 5:13 a.m.

In Response To: Odds for Master vs. Fish? (Timothy Chow)

Suppose that the VR arbiter is perfect and that A is a perfect player playing an 11 point match against player B. Suppose the skill difference makes it 80 - 20 odds. How could player B EVER win the VR result?

I figured out where we are thinking differently. I believe you are thinking that the variance reduced values may be something like .81, .78, .84, .82, .75, ... giving .8 on average. That is not the same as saying that 80% of those values will be above 0.5. I was intending that they make a bet and whoever wins the VR reduced result wins the entire bet and not the proportion of the stake given by the VR result.

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