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Another XG bug? Rerun Rollout

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Thursday, 9 February 2012, at 12:14 p.m.

In Response To: Another XG bug? (Neil Robins)

OK, looks like corruption in my original rollout affected only the move 9/6 7/2 and not the other three candidates I chose to roll, which give the same eqity as originally. Naturally the 95% confidence interval reported for the top move doesn't ovelap with that reported in my longest rollout, but that is what you see all the time.





White is Champion

score: 0
pip: 88
7 point match
pip: 103
score: 0

Blue is Neil
XGID=---BBCCAAA--b---Baadacaaa-:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 53
1.Rollout19/1eq: -0.482
Player:
Opponent:		33.60% (G:0.57% B:0.02%)
66.40% (G:0.40% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.485...-0.478) - [64.7%]
Duration: 22 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout19/4 5/2eq: -0.483 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		33.43% (G:0.49% B:0.02%)
66.57% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.487...-0.480) - [25.1%]
Duration: 23 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout29/6 7/2eq: -0.484 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		33.38% (G:0.54% B:0.02%)
66.62% (G:0.32% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.487...-0.481) - [8.8%]
Duration: 31 minutes 32 seconds
4.*Rollout17/2 5/2eq: -0.486 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		33.29% (G:0.51% B:0.02%)
66.71% (G:0.30% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.490...-0.483) - [1.3%]
Duration: 24 minutes 42 seconds
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31247
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 13348 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 31247
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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