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Bear-off Problem

Posted By: Turz
Date: Thursday, 9 February 2012, at 3:12 p.m.

In Response To: Bear-off Problem (Daniel Murphy)

Tricky.

2 shots more (13 vs. 11) but one more checker borne off. One checker should count for ~8% GWC, while 2 shots only for 6% GWC, so in general I would move 6/1 2/off.

(A), (B) and (C) must have something to do with the following cube action, because Blue is not winning many gammons.

(A): Independently of the move, White will redouble (redoubling point is ridiculously low AtS) and Blue will take (TP should be around 42%). So I like 2/off more.
(B): In the second scenario, White will redouble only after hitting and Blue will pass: so here 6/4* 6/1 should be correct in order to minimize shots. In the first scenario, White will probably redouble only after hitting and bringing the straggler home while Blue dances, so I'll stick to the 2/off move.
(C): No cube, so I only care about winning that is IMHO more likely with 2/off.

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