| I’m going to take the easy way out, and refer to rollouts of similar positions where Blue faced a decision to run or split with a 65 on the third roll. For the most part, these are rollouts that were posted last week.
The diagram above shows Dmitriy’s first position, 42P-21S-65. Based on the rollouts of 31P-21S-65 and 53P-21S-65 that are summarized in nacbracs below, choosing run or split in Dmitriy’s position is going to be close. Perhaps a rollout will show that splitting is very narrowly better. By the Ballard-Weaver error scale, the plays are no doubt tied.
This second diagram shows Dmitriy’s variant, 42P-41S-65. The data I have found for positions that are similar is scanty. If Snowie’s cubeful rollout of 31P-41S-65 can be trusted, then splitting is probably correct in Dmitriy’s position. My guess is that the margin will be somewhat larger than in the first position.
| 31P-41S-65 | [S R21] ~7 | Cubeful, but not Live Cube | Nack |
| 53P-41S-65 | [R S5] '<10 | | Dmitriy |
| 53P-41S-65 | [R S7] "<20 | | Dmitriy |
Mike |
