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Rollout: I see the 6. No wait, I guess I don't...

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 11 February 2012, at 12:04 a.m.

In Response To: I see the 6. No wait, I guess I don't... (Timothy Chow)

I think 13/7 is actually a blunder for any 6x roll (except 66), but anyway, obviously nobody is playing 13/7 here. I played 24/18 and somehow convinced myself that keeping an eye on White's outfield checkers was important, and played 7/3 for the 4. If White had a blot on her 9pt then lifting is more plausible (see variant below) though still probably wrong.

And yes, this position did arise OTB, though against a bot rather than a live person.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 110
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBBBCA-----A--b--cbbbbD-:1:1:1:64:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.Rollout124/14eq: -0.411
Player:
Opponent:
37.39% (G:7.96% B:0.29%)
62.61% (G:33.81% B:6.55%)
Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.427...-0.395)
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
2.Rollout124/18 7/3eq: -0.524 (-0.113)
Player:
Opponent:
32.97% (G:7.00% B:0.28%)
67.03% (G:34.60% B:5.40%)
Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.541...-0.507)
Duration: 1 hour 55 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Variant:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBBBCA-----A--a--ccbbbD-:1:1:1:63:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.XG Roller+24/15eq: -0.356
Player:
Opponent:
40.01% (G:8.84% B:0.35%)
59.99% (G:32.17% B:6.57%)
2.XG Roller+24/18 7/4eq: -0.390 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
37.85% (G:8.84% B:0.36%)
62.15% (G:31.91% B:5.04%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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