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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 2/10
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/10 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Saturday, 11 February 2012, at 11:46 a.m.
Number 1:
The regular (clear from the back) is: 10/8 9/7(2) 8/6. It gives white 5's and 6's for his spare checker on the 4-point. This regular variation gives a nice spare distribution for blue.
The second option is keeping the 9-point closed for one more move: 10/6 8/6 7/5. It slows white down (in case he throws a 5 without a 6), thus giving more gammons.
But the stripped 7 to 9 points will cost some games.
The third option is a bit more creative.
Can we make a gap that forces white to play a checker from his 3-point thus enabling blue to hit on the remaining checker and win more gammons? 10/8 7/5(3)
It leaves blue to hit the eventual remaining checker with 6,5 and 2.
10/8 7/5(3)
Number 2:
What is the gain for blue to play 5/3 1off instead of 3/off. In any case white will have to play 16 pips to avoid the gammon.
According to the Keith count blue has 22 pips after 3/off, and 20 pips (2 pips less wastage) after 5/3 1off.
In a race (and also a gammon-race) a pip counts for about 2% chance (in the first 10 pips-difference range).
So the risky play will gain blue 4% gammons. The safe play will give about 16% gammons, and the risky play about 20% gammons.
However being hit reduces the gammons and will give white a small percentage of lucky wins.
So i'd play 3/off
Number 3:
Let's first categorize this position. It's a threat double, with only an indirect attacker in place.
It's a clear double because of the good blue innerboard. In an equal match or money game white would have a clear take.
The chance of white achoring the next move is: no (63,54,61,52,43,D1,D2,D4,D5) x 11/36 (a 3) = 242/1296 about 19%.
There is some duplication of 3's in the good white numbers (31,63), and there are some awkward white numbers (54,51,21).
All in all I would say Double/Pass.
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