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Daily Quiz 2/7: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 11 February 2012, at 6:41 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/7 (Daily Quiz)





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 114
11 point match
pip: 86
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-BBBCbB---bB----bbbbba--:0:0:1:00:2:6:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 68.42% (G: 3.22% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.58% (G: 2.36% B: 0.06%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.376
Double:+0.768
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.561 (-0.114)
Double/Take:+0.675
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.325)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 93
11 point match
pip: 110
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---CBCBBA------b-ccc-bB-b-:0:0:1:65:3:6:0:11:10
Blue to play 65

1.XG Roller+22/11eq: -0.801
Player:
Opponent:		 25.47% (G:0.75% B:0.01%)
74.53% (G:2.44% B:0.03%)
2.XG Roller+8/2 7/2eq: -0.808 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		 25.34% (G:0.82% B:0.02%)
74.66% (G:2.37% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller+7/2 7/1eq: -0.823 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		 24.90% (G:0.87% B:0.02%)
75.10% (G:3.16% B:0.09%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

It looks like I overestimated Blue's EPC here, though I still managed to get the problem right.





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 21
11 point match
pip: 25
score: 3

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BA--CA--------------caad-:1:1:1:00:3:6:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 77.40% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.60% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.40% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.60% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.548
Redouble:+1.242
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.878 (-0.122)
Redouble/Take:+1.235 (+0.235)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.877...+0.879)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.001 (+1.234...+1.236)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 21
Money session
pip: 25
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BA--CA--------------caad-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 77.40% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.60% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.40% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.60% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.548
Redouble:+1.096
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.823 (-0.177)
Redouble/Take:+1.013 (+0.013)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.822...+0.824)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.002 (+1.011...+1.016)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 36 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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