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42P-66B-31, 53P-66B-31, 64P-66B-31: Rollouts

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 12 February 2012, at 1:44 a.m.

In Response To: 42P-66B-31, 53P-66B-31, 64P-66B-31 (Nack Ballard)

Making the 5pt is best in all three positions:

    42P-66B-31 [P $7 E10] "<=10
    53P-66B-31 [P E2 $10] "<=10
    64P-66B-31 [P E9 $36] "<=10*5

Rollout details are below.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 161
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----B-DbB---cE---cbe----B-:0:0:1:13:0:0:3:0:10
42P-66B-31

1.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.468
Player:
Opponent:		38.27% (G:9.24% B:0.31%)
61.73% (G:14.89% B:0.62%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.473...-0.462) - [97.1%]
Duration: 6 hours 46 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: -0.475 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		38.39% (G:9.01% B:0.32%)
61.61% (G:15.79% B:0.76%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.480...-0.469) - [2.8%]
Duration: 7 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: -0.478 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		38.65% (G:8.16% B:0.31%)
61.35% (G:16.06% B:0.59%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.483...-0.473) - [0.2%]
Duration: 7 hours 01 minute
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 27596186
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B--DbB---cE---cbe----B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
53P-66B-31

1.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.503
Player:
Opponent:		37.45% (G:9.09% B:0.30%)
62.55% (G:15.22% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.508...-0.498) - [74.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 32 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: -0.505 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		37.90% (G:8.11% B:0.30%)
62.10% (G:16.68% B:0.63%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.510...-0.500) - [25.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 34 minutes
3.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: -0.513 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		37.36% (G:9.08% B:0.31%)
62.64% (G:15.88% B:0.82%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.519...-0.507) - [0.1%]
Duration: 3 hours 22 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 93387039
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 143
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B---DbB---cE---cbe----B-:0:0:1:13:0:0:3:0:10
64P-66B-31

1.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.555
Player:
Opponent:		36.11% (G:8.85% B:0.26%)
63.89% (G:15.74% B:0.69%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.560...-0.550) - [99.4%]
Duration: 8 hours 05 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 6/5eq: -0.563 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		36.49% (G:7.76% B:0.26%)
63.51% (G:17.64% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.568...-0.559) - [0.6%]
Duration: 7 hours 39 minutes
3.Rollout213/10 6/5eq: -0.590 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		35.63% (G:8.73% B:0.28%)
64.37% (G:16.82% B:0.88%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.598...-0.583) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 15 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 70051565
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 70051565
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

Contrast the above three positions with the similar 62S-53P-33E-31, where P is an error of .045.

Nack

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