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Blitz cube at score / money (RO)

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai
Date: Monday, 13 February 2012, at 5:44 a.m.

In Response To: Blitz cube at score / money (Jeremy Bagai)

As most suggested, slight money pass; easy take at score.
I saw the money pass. But I don't have an understanding of this score that leads me to easy take. After all, white can use all four points from a gammon.
XG cube info panel tells me that blue's take point (dead) is a high 39.56%, and take point (live) is still 27.78%. I agree there is lots of "juicy recube vig." But it doesn't feel like enough, offhand.
Can someone tell me how they quantify the recube vig here?

At score:




White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 123
9 point match
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBB---aDA--abdba--bA:0:0:-1:00:0:4:0:9:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.03% (G:44.05% B:0.48%) 65.35% (G:45.65% B:1.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.97% (G:6.83% B:0.35%) 34.65% (G:7.51% B:0.47%)
Cubeless Equities +0.656 +1.291
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.641 (-0.053)±0.021 (+0.620..+0.661)
Double/Take:+0.693±0.036 (+0.657..+0.730)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.307)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
432 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.4%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 03 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2



For money:




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 151
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----EBB---aDA--abdba--bA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.20% (G:42.55% B:0.33%) 65.42% (G:44.54% B:0.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.80% (G:6.62% B:0.34%) 34.58% (G:7.29% B:0.47%)
Cubeless Equities +0.663 +1.361
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.669 (-0.331)±0.021 (+0.649..+0.690)
Double/Take:+1.070 (+0.070)±0.038 (+1.033..+1.108)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 53 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

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