My normal recommendation stands - if you don't understand a part of the position keep playing the thing out until you do. I had some time to kill and I played out I don't know how many games of this position and here are some recubes that came up that might help you get a better feel for your recube vig.
I even had the scenario come up where after it goes double/take and my opponent rolls he now has a pass! Figure that one out on your own (or cheat and use the dice distribution in XG)
To get a sense for the recube vig we need to know some things. First, what is our opponent's take point? Since it will essentially be a dead cube we only need figure out his dead cube take point. This works out to about 28%. Much higher than a normal score.
Now, when we do get the chance to double from 2 to 4, how much will our gammons be worth? Since a gammon on 4 takes us to the Crawford game when we were trailing by so much in the match, it should at least be clear to you that they're worth significantly more than money. The actual value is .770. In recubing we also plummet our opp's gammon value since he can only use 1 of the points. This will put his value in the land of .125.
So take any of the positions above with decent gammon chances and figure in a gammon adjusted take point using those values. Position #1, 12% won for the trailer, 17% lost. That means we'd still add about 7% on to the 28% take point making our opp's fully adjusted take point 35%. Position #2 are roughly the same numbers. Not many gammons to worry about in #3. In #4 we turn a money no double into a huge pass because the take point gets adjusted to about 42%. Yada yada yada ... hope this helps.
         
 
          
 | | White is eXtremeGammon
score: 4
pip: 107 | | 9 point match | pip: 133
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=--aaB-EB----AD-a-Abcb-bab-:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:9:10 | | Blue on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in XG Roller+ | No redouble | Redouble/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 55.56% (G:11.22% B:0.57%) | 55.28% (G:11.72% B:0.61%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 44.44% (G:14.43% B:0.35%) | 44.72% (G:17.04% B:0.48%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0.110 | +0.619 | | Cubeful Equities | | No redouble: | +0.526 (-0.069) | | | Redouble/Take: | +0.595 | | | Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.405) | | | | Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
|
 
| | White is eXtremeGammon
score: 4
pip: 130 | | 9 point match | pip: 156
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-b---aEBB----D----cdcA-Ab-:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:9:10 | | Blue on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in XG Roller+ | No redouble | Redouble/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 54.00% (G:12.12% B:0.62%) | 54.31% (G:11.93% B:0.61%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 46.00% (G:18.27% B:0.41%) | 45.69% (G:17.89% B:0.41%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0.052 | +0.581 | | Cubeful Equities | | No redouble: | +0.489 (-0.068) | | | Redouble/Take: | +0.557 | | | Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.443) | | | | Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
|
 
| | White is eXtremeGammon
score: 4
pip: 70 | | 9 point match | pip: 92
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=--BBAaCBC--B----a--abcbbc-:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:9:10 | | Blue on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in XG Roller+ | No redouble | Redouble/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 58.87% (G:3.03% B:0.09%) | 58.88% (G:3.34% B:0.09%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 41.13% (G:6.69% B:0.04%) | 41.12% (G:8.17% B:0.07%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0.149 | +0.540 | | Cubeful Equities | | No redouble: | +0.365 (-0.135) | | | Redouble/Take: | +0.501 | | | Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.499) | | | | Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
|
 
| | White is eXtremeGammon
score: 4
pip: 119 | | 9 point match | pip: 153
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-a-aBaCBB---AC---aabbbbBb-:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:9:10 | | Blue on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in XG Roller+ | No redouble | Redouble/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 64.36% (G:19.75% B:1.51%) | 63.64% (G:22.02% B:1.68%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.64% (G:15.40% B:0.60%) | 36.36% (G:19.03% B:1.38%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0.389 | +1.301 | | Cubeful Equities | | No redouble: | +0.835 (-0.165) | | | Redouble/Take: | +1.298 (+0.298) | | | Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | | | | Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass |
|
 
| | White is eXtremeGammon
score: 4
pip: 90 | | 9 point match | pip: 127
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=--aa-BFB---A-C---A-bbcbac-:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:9:10 | | Blue on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in XG Roller+ | No redouble | Redouble/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 55.94% (G:10.65% B:0.37%) | 55.24% (G:10.93% B:0.39%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 44.06% (G:12.41% B:0.22%) | 44.76% (G:13.81% B:0.26%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0.128 | +0.606 | | Cubeful Equities | | No redouble: | +0.537 (-0.039) | | | Redouble/Take: | +0.577 | | | Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.423) | | | | Best Cube action: Redouble / Take |
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