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Rollout: My current Achilles heel: containment cubes

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 13 February 2012, at 3:24 p.m.

In Response To: My current Achilles heel: containment cubes (Timothy Chow)

I didn't double in this position, but what I didn't tell you was that the position arose not for money but at 7a3a. Got dinged for a double whopper. Even for money the doubling decision is close.

By the way, I don't know who Stick plays with, but I know some people who would pass this for sure.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 110
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 109
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBB-B-B---c--A---cbbcBa-:0:0:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 64.10% (G: 21.27% B: 0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.90% (G: 11.20% B: 0.62%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.59% (G: 22.48% B: 0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.41% (G: 10.71% B: 0.64%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.282
Double:+0.809
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.603
Double/Take:+0.576 (-0.027)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.397)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.594...+0.613)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.562...+0.591)
Double Decision confidence: 99.9%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 09 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 110
7 point match
pip: 109
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBB-B-B---c--A---cbbcBa-:0:0:1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 63.69% (G: 20.79% B: 0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.31% (G: 10.15% B: 0.71%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.29% (G: 22.99% B: 0.15%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.71% (G: 10.71% B: 1.04%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.368
Double:+0.933
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.691 (-0.205)
Double/Take:+0.896
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.104)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and Cube Decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.680...+0.702)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.878...+0.915)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 59 minutes 57 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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