[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Blitz cube at score / money (RO)

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 13 February 2012, at 6:40 p.m.

In Response To: Blitz cube at score / money (RO) (Stick)

Re "juicy recube vig." Maybe this helps too:

You're 9-away 5-away holding 2-cube. No redouble, win 2 points -> 7-away 5-away = 37.33%. Double, win 4 points -> 5-away 5-away = 50.00%. Redouble gains 12.67%. No double, lose 2 points -> 9-away 3-away = 16%. Double, lose 4 points -> 9-away 1-away = 5.6%. Double risks 10.4%. R/(R+G) = 10/23 = 43.4%.

In short, ATS your gammonless redoubling window opens at 43% intead of 50%.

And your gammon threat is huge.

No redouble, win 4 points (gammon) -> 5-away 5-away = 50.00%. Double, win 8 points -> 1-away 5-away = 84.00%. Redouble gains 34%. No double, lose 2 points -> 9-away 3-away = 16%. Double, lose 4 points -> 9-away 1-away = 5.6%. Double risks 10.4%. R/(R+G) = 10/44.4 = 22.52%

If all your wins are gammons and all your losses are singles, your doubling window open at 22.5%! Compare money: doubling gains 4 points and risks 2 points. R/(R+G) = 2/6 = 33%.

Three examples -- Opp's worst rolls after double/take:

(1) Opp plays 66 13/1 8/2 7/1. For money redouble is a 0.200 blunder. ATS you have a redouble/pass with 62% GWC including 17% gammons.

(2) Opp plays 61 13/7 6/5. For money redouble is a 0.800 blunder. ATS redouble is a mistake, but "only" a 0.070 mistake.

(3) Opp plays 55 13/3 7(2). For money redouble is a 0.800 blunder. ATS redouble is only a 0.030 mistake.

*Equity estimates all per Gnubg 2-ply evaluations.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.