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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 27 December 2006, at 5:14 a.m.

In Response To: 42P-66B-42? (Stick)

Everyone seemed to think 24/20 was clear but Snowie thinks differently. Moving up all the way with 24/20 leaves you open to more of an attack (shown by the amount of gammons lost) and you are way behind in the race for it being so early in the game, the 3 pt. anchor offers you more long term prospects to get back into the game. Also if you move all the way up and are pointed on that's basically cube + game over, if you only split to the 3 and your opp. makes the 5 pt. (or 4 pt.) the game isn't over yet, or even if he points on you on the 3 pt. on your head you have to only enter and you are still in the game.

Money Game
143
161
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/22 13/9 -0.463
0.3% 8.5% 37.9% 62.1% 16.5% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.325 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 182983 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 24/20 13/11 -0.484 (-0.021)
0.4% 8.5% 37.8% 62.2% 17.1% 0.8%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.334 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5284 games (equiv. 178495 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 24/20 24/22 -0.486 (-0.023)
0.2% 6.7% 37.3% 62.7% 14.9% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.338 ±0.005. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 196247 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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