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Cube Problem

Posted By: pontiac
Date: Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 7:09 a.m.

In Response To: Cube Problem (Daniel Murphy)

thanks for this nice detailed mathematical analysis Daniel. It looks to strange to me to dbl here, while I am on the bar and too behind in race, but XG thinks it is nearly pass.





White is XG Roller+

score: 1
pip: 62
7 point match
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is pontiac
XGID=--aBBBC-B-A---aB-----bcceA:1:1:1:00:0:1:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69,76% (G:13,87% B:0,45%) 70,26% (G:14,28% B:0,64%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30,24% (G:9,69% B:0,04%) 29,74% (G:10,32% B:0,06%)
  Cubeless Equities +0,448 +1,039
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,744 (-0,238)±0,005 (+0,738..+0,749)
Redouble/Take:+0,982±0,007 (+0,975..+0,989)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,018)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2233 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23928234
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Remaining moves: 3-ply Red, cube decisions: 3-ply
 
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 11 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

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