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RO for score and money

Posted By: pontiac
Date: Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 7:17 a.m.

In Response To: Bear off Cube Problem (John O'Hagan)

In fact I am not sure about is it dbl OTB. Which I remember as a reference pos. is that, When opp has borne off 5 checkers and I am in a perfect distribution pos. it is %22 win for opp, which is nearly take-pass decision. So here, mine 2pt is open and may be I cant close it, or I will be in a bad distribution pos. after a roll. So it looks easy take here and I thought about is it dbl? But sure, match score affects the result and I am still not an expert about match score decisions.





White is XG Roller+

score: 3
pip: 40
7 point match
pip: 65
score: 2

Blue is pontiac
XGID=aB-CCCC--A------------bbe-:1:1:1:00:2:3:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69,86% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 69,91% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30,14% (G:0,08% B:0,00%) 30,09% (G:0,20% B:0,00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0,396 +0,986
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,864 (-0,122)±0,002 (+0,863..+0,866)
Redouble/Take:+0,986±0,004 (+0,982..+0,990)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,014)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23928234
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Remaining moves: 3-ply Red, cube decisions: 3-ply
 
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 24,7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

money,





White is XG Roller+

score: 0
pip: 40
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 65
score: 0

Blue is pontiac
XGID=aB-CCCC--A------------bbe-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69,84% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) 69,80% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30,16% (G:0,12% B:0,00%) 30,20% (G:0,06% B:0,00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0,396 +0,791
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,732±0,007 (+0,725..+0,738)
Redouble/Take:+0,597 (-0,135)±0,009 (+0,588..+0,606)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,268)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 25,1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 12034951
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 43,4 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

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