| |
BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 2/13
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/13 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 10:22 a.m.
Daily Quiz 13 february 2012
Number 1:
The delta-6 point is extra valuable against a one-man-on-bar. The move 20/10(2) makes this point against a risk of D4 and 41. The other containment move 20/15(3) 17/12 is less risky (risk-difference = 5,5%). But then there is this single bad move 46 which makes a nice extra compensation for the risk after 20/10(2).
Answer: 20/10(2).
Number 2:
At first sight I would play on (no double) considering that it’s a bar-anchor which is “always” No Double. But since the position is published I decided to have another look.
For what reason could this be a double, maybe there is a certain race window that is exceeded. With this pipcount white has less than 5% race. Besides that the white position looks stripped and blue’s position has playability.
Blue can play 56 pips before he has to throw a double 2345, so he has 8 moves of time to do so, the chance of not succeeding in this is 32/36 ^ 8 = about 40%, the chance of being hit is 17/36 * 40% = about 19%, + a 5% racechance of white gives 24%. So far it seems like a nice Double/Take window (for an equal score).
But after 32 pips blue starts to crunch, white after 45 pips, this will increase white’s racechance, because of the blue wastage, all in all I tend to give white about 30%, whicht would make it a narrow double at an equal score, but at a 7-4 score it is a No Double.
Number 3:
It’s matchpoint for white, so blue has to take a chance. Blocking the delta 6 with b/23 13/11(3) is rather useless, only D3 will give white a tiny problem. Blue should strive for a 2-1 backgame with timing.
Answer: b/23 13/9 13/
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.