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A position. Backgammon may be solved ...

Posted By: Turz
Date: Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 5:15 p.m.

In Response To: A position. Backgammon may be solved ... (Daniel Murphy)

Blue hits with every roll except 34 (by the way, are you the same Murphy of Murphy's Law?) => 34/36.

If White doesn't hit back (30/36), Blue is a favorite to cover and therefore win (let's say 22/36 on average). So 50% of "immediate" wins.

If Blue doesn't cover immediately, he may still win half of the remaining cases, so 75% in total. The problem is complicated by the fact that many of Blue's losses are gammons. So at the end a take could be OK for both scores.

Redouble/Take

Bonus: against a 4-point board I'm still afraid to be hit, so 13/9 12/9 may be more appropriate than 20/13, which leaves hitting 5s and only one guard back on the 19.

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