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Daily Quiz 2/10: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 5:17 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/10 (Daily Quiz)

I don't really understand the rankings in the truncated rollout below.





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 121
11 point match
pip: 102
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AbcCBCCBA------------df-:1:-1:1:22:0:4:0:11:10
Blue to play 22

1.Rollout110/6 8/6 7/5eq: +1.102
Player:
Opponent:		 91.02% (G:26.53% B:0.71%)
8.98% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (+1.096...+1.108)
Duration: 1 minute 20 seconds
2.Rollout110/6 7/5(2)eq: +1.088 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		 89.26% (G:28.69% B:1.02%)
10.74% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)		Conf: ± 0.007 (+1.081...+1.095)
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout18/6 7/5(3)eq: +1.084 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		 89.28% (G:28.30% B:0.93%)
10.72% (G:0.57% B:0.01%)		Conf: ± 0.008 (+1.076...+1.092)
Duration: 1 minute 51 seconds
4.Rollout18/6(3) 7/5eq: +1.070 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		 89.20% (G:27.25% B:0.90%)
10.80% (G:0.55% B:0.01%)		Conf: ± 0.007 (+1.063...+1.077)
Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
5.Rollout110/6 8/6(2)eq: +1.059 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		 88.86% (G:26.92% B:0.91%)
11.14% (G:0.50% B:0.01%)		Conf: ± 0.007 (+1.052...+1.066)
Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds
1 Truncated at 7 moves using 3 ply.
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 51
11 point match
pip: 17
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-D-AaB-------------ba--bi-:1:-1:1:21:0:4:0:11:10
Blue to play 21

1.XG Roller+5/3 5/4* eq: +1.178
Player:
Opponent:		 98.58% (G:18.50% B:0.23%)
1.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller+3/0ffeq: +1.139 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		 99.99% (G:12.43% B:0.01%)
0.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller+5/3 1/0ffeq: +1.105 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:		 99.36% (G:10.56% B:0.11%)
0.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 51
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 17
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-D-AaB-------------ba--bi-:1:-1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.XG Roller+5/3 5/4* eq: +1.155
Player:
Opponent:		 98.58% (G:18.52% B:0.23%)
1.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller+3/0ffeq: +1.124 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		 99.99% (G:12.43% B:0.01%)
0.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller+5/3 1/0ffeq: +1.092 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:		 99.36% (G:10.56% B:0.11%)
0.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
White is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 167
11 point match
pip: 139
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBaBB----AdDb--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:00:4:8:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 62.96% (G: 28.27% B: 0.95%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.04% (G: 7.11% B: 0.32%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.472
Double:+1.063
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.814 (-0.186)
Double/Take:+1.009 (+0.009)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 139
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBBaBB----AdDb--c-dA---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 62.85% (G: 28.42% B: 0.92%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.15% (G: 7.20% B: 0.32%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.257
Double:+0.941
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.642 (-0.044)
Double/Take:+0.686
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.314)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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