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How do you play 2-1, why?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 14 February 2012, at 11:18 p.m.

In Response To: How do you play 2-1, why? (pontiac)

With a big board advantage and a big race deficit, we should be looking for a bold play that maximizes our shot potential. 19/18 3/1 is the obvious candidate, closing the board. 19/17 doesn't seem to have any advantages, but 19/17 together with an ace inside our board is worth a look. It threatens White's outfield blot and duplicates 6's. Still, with White having a three-point board, it looks like too many shots (e.g., 64 and 66 are very nasty), plus it forgoes closing our board. So 19/18 3/1 looks best of the splitting plays.

So we're playing 3/1 for sure and choosing between 19/18 and 5/4. I think the only really reliable way to assess this kind of play is to go through all White's rolls, which one may not have time to do OTB. But we can observe that White doesn't seem to have many devastating rolls. For example, with 64 or 63, I think White will just run past rather than hit and cover.

19/18 3/1.

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