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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 2/15
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/15 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 1:17 p.m.
Daily Quiz 15 february 2012
Number 1:
With his threat and better position white has a double. White's 1-anchor and his 4-prime that might become a 5-prime give him enough takepotential.
Answer: DT
Number 2:
There are 2 possible strategies in this position:
A: Close-out the white checker, giving us a 60% winning chance. B: Go for more, and try to force white to play 4 times a 1 in order to be able to hit a second checker, thus trying to raise our chances to about 90% when we close-out 2 checkers.
The problem with the B-strategy is that we have to wait until white throws 4 1’s, on average this will mean that white will have been throwing 4 6’s as well, so we have to contain him 4 times. When we presume our containment chance is 80%, then the chance of containing him 4 times will be 80% ^4 = 42%. Say that we will hit the left blot on point 23 50% of the time, that gives 21% for strategy B.
This means that we should aim for strategy A and see the containment as a backup plan.
Answer: 7x2 16/14
Number 3:
After playing the seemingly safe and ugly 15/11 2/1 white will have a lot of good numbers.
16 will make the 3, 5- or barpoint, 6 will hit the blot on 11, 5 will escape (totally 27 good numbers) and the rest will blitz. Seen in this light the forementioned move is all but safe. I think white can double after this move, and blue should pass, because of the score.
The move 15/11 5x4 is a bit safer, even though white might be on the verge of a good action double, based on the score, which blue can still take.
Answer: 15/11 5x4
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