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Daily Quiz 2/11: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 15 February 2012, at 3:29 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/11 (Daily Quiz)

It seems that Blue wins a lot of gammons here, but doesn't lose many. So it seems it's O.K. to cube.





White is Player 1

score: 5
pip: 186
11 point match
pip: 153
score: 8

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aaaB-BC-B--adC---c-dAA-A--:0:0:1:00:8:5:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 70.15% (G: 39.12% B: 4.85%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.85% (G: 4.75% B: 0.20%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.880
Double:+1.377
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.868 (-0.035)
Double/Take:+0.903
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.097)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 186
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aaaB-BC-B--adC---c-dAA-A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 70.70% (G: 36.86% B: 4.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.30% (G: 4.67% B: 0.17%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.414
Double:+1.585
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.957 (-0.043)
Double/Take:+1.378 (+0.378)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Truncated rollout:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
11 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBaB-BC-B---cB--bb-db-A-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 63.50% (G: 41.79% B: 0.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.50% (G: 8.85% B: 0.52%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.97% (G: 43.68% B: 0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.03% (G: 8.84% B: 0.52%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.607
Double:+1.299
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.737 (-0.263)
Double/Take:+1.023 (+0.023)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.727...+0.746)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+1.005...+1.041)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 99.4%
Duration: 2 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Truncated rollout:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 195
11 point match
pip: 81
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=abCDCCa-----c-b-Ac-cA-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 62.61% (G: 43.75% B: 6.87%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.39% (G: 3.37% B: 0.11%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.57% (G: 44.40% B: 6.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.43% (G: 3.53% B: 0.10%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.735
Double:+1.513
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.890 (-0.110)
Double/Take:+1.191 (+0.191)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.019 (+0.871...+0.909)
Confidence Double: ± 0.026 (+1.165...+1.218)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Variant:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 195
11 point match
pip: 78
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=abCDCCa-----cAb--c-cA-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 65.50% (G: 47.66% B: 7.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.50% (G: 2.48% B: 0.09%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.73% (G: 48.02% B: 7.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.27% (G: 2.65% B: 0.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.851
Double:+1.752
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.992 (-0.008)
Double/Take:+1.456 (+0.456)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.978...+1.007)
Confidence Double: ± 0.024 (+1.432...+1.481)
Double Decision confidence: 85.8%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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