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Bear-off Problem - RO

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 11:52 p.m.

In Response To: Bear-off Problem (Timothy Chow)

Got rollouts. Summary: in the six rollouts, best play for both positions at the three scores was clearly 6/1 2/off, except in a money game in the first position, where 6/4* 6/1 did slightly better.

Blue to play 52

White 58 Blue 26 Position ID: 320GAARvYwAAAA Match ID: QolqAQAAMAAE

(A) Blue leads 6-0/11 Alert: bad move ( -0.051) # Ply Move Equity 1 R 6/1 2/off +0.6298 0.8888 0.0037 0.0000 - 0.1112 0.0000 0.0000 +0.7783 +0.6298 0.0005 0.0006 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0010 0.0018 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907948714 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] • 2 R 6/4* 6/1 +0.5792 ( -0.0507) 0.8726 0.0475 0.0013 - 0.1274 0.0000 0.0000 +0.7540 +0.5792 0.0004 0.0012 0.0003 - 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 0.0007 0.0014 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907948714 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] (B) Money Game # Ply Move Equity • 1 R 6/4* 6/1 +0.7427 0.8732 0.0450 0.0005 - 0.1268 0.0000 0.0000 +0.7918 +0.7427 0.0002 0.0002 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0006 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 7776 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907936100 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 6/1 2/off +0.7390 ( -0.0037) 0.8887 0.0032 0.0000 - 0.1113 0.0000 0.0000 +0.7805 +0.7390 0.0003 0.0001 0.0000 - 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000 0.0005 0.0007 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 7776 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907936100 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] (C) DMP # Ply Move Equity • 1 R 6/1 2/off +0.7771 0.8885 0.1177 0.0000 - 0.1115 0.0000 0.0000 +0.7771 +0.7771 0.0005 0.0055 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0009 0.0009 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2664 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907936100 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 6/4* 6/1 +0.7463 ( -0.0308) 0.8732 0.2191 0.0020 - 0.1268 0.0000 0.0000 +0.7463 +0.7463 0.0004 0.0070 0.0004 - 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 0.0007 0.0007 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2664 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907936100 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Blue to play 52

White 70 Blue 26 Position ID: u+0GAARvYwAAAA Match ID: QolqAQAAMAAE

(A) Blue leads 6-0-/11 # Ply Move Equity • 1 R 6/1 2/off +0.3345 0.7790 0.0068 0.0000 - 0.2210 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5594 +0.3345 0.0001 0.0009 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0002 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907936100 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 6/1 3/1 +0.2436 ( -0.0909) 0.7498 0.1141 0.0000 - 0.2502 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4996 +0.2436 0.0003 0.0077 0.0000 - 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0012 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907936100 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] (B) Money Game # Ply Move Equity • 1 R 6/1 2/off +0.4559 0.7757 0.0023 0.0000 - 0.2243 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5536 +0.4559 0.0003 0.0001 0.0000 - 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000 0.0006 0.0018 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907936100 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 6/4* 6/1 +0.4067 ( -0.0491) 0.7438 0.0412 0.0005 - 0.2562 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5293 +0.4067 0.0004 0.0003 0.0000 - 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008 0.0019 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907936100 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] (C) DMP # Ply Move Equity • 1 R 6/1 2/off +0.5496 0.7748 0.1883 0.0000 - 0.2252 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5496 +0.5496 0.0005 0.0125 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 753 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907936100 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 6/1 3/1 +0.4992 ( -0.0504) 0.7496 0.1122 0.0000 - 0.2504 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4992 +0.4992 0.0004 0.0100 0.0000 - 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 0.0008 0.0008 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 753 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907936100 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 3 R 6/4* 6/1 +0.4857 ( -0.0639) 0.7428 0.2456 0.0019 - 0.2572 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4857 +0.4857 0.0005 0.0124 0.0006 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0010 0.0010 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 752 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 907936100 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Bear-off Problem
  Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 9 February 2012, at 12:15 p.m.
  • Bear-off Problem
    Turz -- Thursday, 9 February 2012, at 3:12 p.m.
  • Bear-off Problem
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 10:31 p.m.
    • Bear-off Problem - RO
      Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 16 February 2012, at 11:52 p.m.