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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 2/15
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/15 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Saturday, 18 February 2012, at 12:33 a.m.
This is a good set of problems.
1. Blue has a strong advantage in this priming game and I think the double is clear; only the take is in question. This is tough to judge because I think seemingly small changes in the position can have dramatic effects on the equity. I note that Blue's 3's are somewhat duplicated to escape and make the 4pt. Blue currently only has a four-point prime and only two home-board points; however, timing is crucial in prime-vs-prime positions and White is running seriously short of time. I'm going to go with D/T but am not confident about the take.
2. If we don't hit then 18/13 16/14 looks like the best move, threatening to lock up the six-prime. If we do hit with 7/2* then 16/14 looks like the best 2. Often in these sorts of positions, hitting gives White good 1's and 2's while holding the five-prime only gives White good 6's, so holding the prime is better. Here, though, after 18/13 16/14, White's 6's carry a serious gammon threat, which carries extra pain ATS. Not sure but I'll go with 18/13 16/14.
3. There are several possible game plans here. The most aggressive play is 13/9 5/4* but that seems way too loose with our race lead and match lead. 15/11 5/4* is a second possibility, trying to take advantage of our stronger board and hitting to gain a tempo so that White can't make a new point. A third possibility is 7/2, strengthening our board in preparation for a blot-hitting contest. A fourth possibility is 22/18 15/14 trying to race while ahead in the race, and duplicating White's 2's to hit. Finally, there's 15/11 2/1 trying to minimize blots and shots, but that seems far too passive. Not sure but I will try 22/18 15/14.
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