I am posting five positions.
Position 1. This is the original, the one I posted yesterday. I am very proud to proclaim that my play, which yesterday I said was a blunder (off by at least 0.06), has now been upgraded to a whopper (off by at least 0.10).
        
 
         
 | | White is Michel1
score: 0
pip: 164 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 107
score: 0
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-caBBBBBA-A-bC--a--bbb-b--:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/6 | eq: +1.034 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 83.38% (G:40.07% B:4.74%)
16.62% (G:1.56% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.031...+1.036) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/9 8/5 | eq: +1.007 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.69% (G:39.00% B:4.56%)
17.31% (G:1.15% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.004...+1.009) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/4 | eq: +0.997 (-0.037) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.47% (G:38.78% B:4.51%)
17.53% (G:1.33% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.994...+1.000) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 10/7 8/7 | eq: +0.980 (-0.054) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.37% (G:37.49% B:4.11%)
17.63% (G:1.27% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.977...+0.983) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 8/6 3/2*(2) | eq: +0.949 (-0.085) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78.52% (G:42.51% B:5.88%)
21.48% (G:1.72% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.946...+0.952) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 59 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 10/9 8/7 3/2*(2) | eq: +0.943 (-0.090) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78.50% (G:42.49% B:5.77%)
21.50% (G:2.09% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.940...+0.946) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 10/8 3/2*(2) | eq: +0.933 (-0.101) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78.19% (G:42.08% B:5.70%)
21.81% (G:1.91% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.930...+0.936) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout1 | 4/2*(2) | eq: +0.856 (-0.178) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 76.38% (G:39.93% B:5.30%)
23.62% (G:2.81% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.853...+0.859) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02
Position 2. Let's look at a variation in which White better timing by 18 pips. Even here, 10/6 is best.
| | White is Michel1
score: 0
pip: 182 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 107
score: 0
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-caBBBBBA-A-bC--abbbb-----:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/6 | eq: +0.808 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.70% (G:40.34% B:6.47%)
26.30% (G:2.09% B:0.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.799...+0.818) - [96.5%]
Duration: 11 minutes 23 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/6 3/2*(2) | eq: +0.795 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.58% (G:44.05% B:7.07%)
28.42% (G:1.99% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.784...+0.806) - [3.4%]
Duration: 10 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 10/9 8/5 | eq: +0.788 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 73.83% (G:38.74% B:5.82%)
26.17% (G:1.63% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.779...+0.797) - [0.1%]
Duration: 11 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 10/9 8/7 3/2*(2) | eq: +0.778 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.14% (G:43.42% B:7.09%)
28.86% (G:2.35% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.768...+0.787) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 53 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 10/8 3/2*(2) | eq: +0.768 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 70.86% (G:43.26% B:7.00%)
29.14% (G:2.31% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.758...+0.778) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| |
1 1527 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1526 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02
Position 3. Now White has even more timing, so Blue needs to switch to keep White from getting a decent backgame with an ace.
| | White is Michel1
score: 0
pip: 191 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 107
score: 0
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-caBBBBBA-A-bC-abbbb------:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 11 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/6 3/2*(2) | eq: +0.799 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 70.55% (G:45.59% B:8.22%)
29.45% (G:1.71% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.786...+0.811) - [95.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout2 | 10/9 8/7 3/2*(2) | eq: +0.782 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 70.34% (G:45.23% B:8.00%)
29.66% (G:2.08% B:0.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.769...+0.796) - [4.2%]
Duration: 9 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout3 | 10/8 3/2*(2) | eq: +0.775 (-0.023) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.71% (G:44.94% B:8.05%)
30.29% (G:2.01% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.761...+0.790) - [0.8%]
Duration: 9 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout4 | 4/2*(2) | eq: +0.765 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.94% (G:44.73% B:7.54%)
30.06% (G:2.27% B:0.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.751...+0.779) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout4 | 10/9 7/6 3/2*(2) | eq: +0.757 (-0.042) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 69.41% (G:44.97% B:8.00%)
30.59% (G:2.30% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.744...+0.770) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 36 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout2 | 10/9 8/5 | eq: +0.746 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.32% (G:40.07% B:6.26%)
28.68% (G:1.71% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.736...+0.757) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout5 | 10/6 | eq: +0.739 (-0.059) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 70.57% (G:41.33% B:7.32%)
29.43% (G:2.07% B:0.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.726...+0.752) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| |
1 1192 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1207 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 1208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
4 1206 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
5 1205 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02
Position 4. Why is this play so bad that it rolls out to be a whopper? It leaves the issue of the 3pt unresolved. White has a good chance to roll a 3 within the next few shakes. What then? Blue may have to hit loose when White has a stronger position. White may make the 3pt and get a decent 1-3 backgame. Or, neither side will make the 3pt, and Blue will have to bear off against a "phantom" 1-3 backgame.
 
| | White is Michel1
score: 0
pip: 166 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 103
score: 0
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=acB-BBBBB---bC--a--bbb-b--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| White on roll, cube action? |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02
Position 5. Blue has played 10/6, the best play in Position 1. Blue should not be afraid of White's aces because of White's poor timing for a 1-2 backgame. Blue should not be afraid of White's 6s because of his strong prime that has three enemy checkers trapped and not at the edge. If White rolls neither a 6 nor a 1, then Blue is hot on the gammon trail.
| | White is Michel1
score: 0
pip: 164 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 103
score: 0
Blue is peever |
|
| XGID=-caBBBCBA---bC--a--bbb-b--:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| White on roll, cube action? |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02