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53P-43Z-32 — Rollouts for Money and DMP

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 5:52 a.m.

In Response To: 53P-43Z-32 — Only 96% confidence after 80k (Taper_Mike)

Daniel nailed this one.

It is a bit surprising to me, however, that K (Kill) = 6/4*/1* does so well for money. It leaves a stacked midpoint, just 8 checkers in the zone, and only one active builder to cover the 1pt. I wonder whether part of its strength has to do with defanging the opponent’s powerful blot on the 9pt.

By comparison, the advantages of H (Hit) = 13/10 6/4* are obvious. It unstacks the midpoint, brings another checker into the zone, and gives Blue a good 6 to play next time, either to cover or to hit.

At DMP, K (Kill) falls back into 3rd place, behind the very reasonable X (Hit and split) = 24/21 6/4*. In fact, at DMP, all three choices are tied on the Ballard/Weaver Error Scale.

Please send your request by email to receive copies of my XGP files.

Does anyone else have rollouts for these?

Mike

53P-43Z-32 – [K H3.7 X21.0] "<=103*20
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32
1.Rollout16/4* 4/1* eq: +0.1139
Player:
Opponent:		51.78% (G:19.05% B:0.74%)
48.22% (G:13.55% B:0.71%)		Conf.: ±0.0019 (+0.1121...+0.1158) - [99.6%]
Duration: 11 hours 12 minutes
2.Rollout113/10 6/4* eq: +0.1102 (-0.0037)
Player:
Opponent:		52.27% (G:17.63% B:1.03%)
47.73% (G:14.49% B:0.97%)		Conf.: ±0.0020 (+0.1082...+0.1122) - [0.4%]
Duration: 11 hours 46 minutes
3.Rollout224/21 6/4* eq: +0.0929 (-0.0210)
Player:
Opponent:		51.97% (G:16.64% B:0.94%)
48.03% (G:14.13% B:0.75%)		Conf.: ±0.0044 (+0.0885...+0.0973) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 27 minutes
1 103680 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92524348
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92524348
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01

53P-43Z-32 – d[H X6.1 K9.4] "<=20
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
1 point match
pip: 159
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-Ba-D-B---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 32
1.Rollout113/10 6/4* eq: +0.0419
Player:
Opponent:		52.09% (G:20.76% B:3.85%)
47.91% (G:16.35% B:3.11%)		Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.0403...+0.0434) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 11 minutes
2.Rollout124/21 6/4* eq: +0.0357 (-0.0061)
Player:
Opponent:		51.79% (G:19.26% B:3.54%)
48.21% (G:16.34% B:2.41%)		Conf.: ±0.0015 (+0.0342...+0.0372) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 15 minutes
3.Rollout16/4* 4/1* eq: +0.0325 (-0.0094)
Player:
Opponent:		51.63% (G:21.73% B:2.09%)
48.37% (G:14.86% B:2.16%)		Conf.: ±0.0014 (+0.0311...+0.0339) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 05 minutes
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69517257
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

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