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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 9:35 a.m.

In Response To: Squandering a Joker Double Aces (Paul Weaver)

Three rollout results are posted below. I believe I end up learning more than anyone else every time I make a post.

Position 1. Cube action before the roll.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 145 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 129 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B--D-D---dD-Aabbe------:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.07% (G:11.27% B:0.19%)	70.09% (G:11.64% B:0.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.93% (G:3.91% B:0.12%)	29.91% (G:4.15% B:0.14%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.476	+0.955
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.765	±0.008 (+0.757..+0.772)
Double/Take:	+0.751 (-0.013)	±0.009 (+0.742..+0.761)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.235)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.1%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		98.6%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 20 minutes 19 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Position 2. Cube in center, original position.

		White is IanchoHr score: 0 pip: 145 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 129 score: 0 Blue is peever
XGID=-a-B--D-D---dD-Aabbe------:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.	Rollout1	15/13 8/7(2)	eq: +0.945
	Player: Opponent: 73.95% (G:10.57% B:0.11%) 26.05% (G:2.46% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.935...+0.955) - [100.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/7(2) 6/5(2)	eq: +0.846 (-0.100)
	Player: Opponent: 73.89% (G:14.02% B:0.35%) 26.11% (G:4.28% B:0.12%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.837...+0.854) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 17 seconds
3.	Rollout1	15/13 6/5(2)	eq: +0.810 (-0.136)
	Player: Opponent: 71.60% (G:9.42% B:0.13%) 28.40% (G:3.11% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.798...+0.821) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Position 3. Stick suggested 8/7(2) 6/5(2) would be best if White owned the cube.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 145 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 129 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B--D-D---dD-Aabbe------:1:-1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.	Rollout1	8/7(2) 6/5(2)	eq: +0.508
	Player: Opponent: 74.57% (G:14.93% B:0.37%) 25.43% (G:4.33% B:0.13%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.501...+0.515) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 05 seconds
2.	Rollout1	15/13 8/7(2)	eq: +0.479 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 74.13% (G:10.76% B:0.11%) 25.87% (G:2.53% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.473...+0.485) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 57 seconds
3.	Rollout1	15/13 6/5(2)	eq: +0.402 (-0.106)
	Player: Opponent: 71.65% (G:9.62% B:0.13%) 28.35% (G:3.08% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.395...+0.408) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 52 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02

Messages In This Thread

• Squandering a Joker Double Aces
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 20 February 2012, at 3:41 p.m.
  • Squandering a Joker Double Aces
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 20 February 2012, at 4:07 p.m.
    • Squandering a Joker Double Aces
      Stick -- Monday, 20 February 2012, at 4:43 p.m.
      • Squandering a Joker Double Aces
        Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 20 February 2012, at 5:15 p.m.
  • Squandering a Joker Double Aces
    muf211 -- Monday, 20 February 2012, at 6:12 p.m.
    • Squandering a Joker Double Aces
      muf211 -- Monday, 20 February 2012, at 6:29 p.m.
  • Squandering a Joker Double Aces
    ah_clem -- Monday, 20 February 2012, at 8:18 p.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 9:35 a.m.
    • Rollout Results Posted
      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 9:55 a.m.
    • Rollout Results Posted
      pontiac -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 12:53 p.m.
      • Rollout Results Posted
        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 2:16 p.m.
        • Rollout Results Posted
          pontiac -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 3:55 p.m.
          • Rollout Results Posted
            Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 21 February 2012, at 4:07 p.m.
            • Rollout Results Posted
              pontiac -- Wednesday, 22 February 2012, at 7:32 a.m.