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Denver goes well

Posted By: Ian Shaw
Date: Monday, 1 October 2007, at 11:04 a.m.

In Response To: Denver goes well (neilkaz)

If Blue takes and loses he is trailing 2-away Crawford, so has 33% MWC. He can pass for evens or take and win the match. I get a takepoint of 18/68 = 26.5%.

All White's rolls play safely, and I don't see a great many shots in the future. Looking at the race, Blue trails by 11 pips in a 96 pip race. White will have wastage from the open four point (and also the five point if he can't fill it). Blue already has some deep chequers; nothing serious yet but he'll end up burying if he holds the anchor. I'll figure it as a wash and go with the direct pip count.

A 10% lead is worth 75%; the extra pip-and-a-half must be worth around 3%. If Blue can only win 22% he has a clear pass, though a borderline take for money.

I believe Neil's playing-strength will only serve to raise the takepoint, so he specifically should certainly have passed.

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