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OLM Mon. Oct. 1st - Cube

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Monday, 1 October 2007, at 2:12 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Mon. Oct. 1st - Cube (Stick)

Of course this would be a double if it were a last-roll decision with 24-12 odds. But there are two things that make it complicated.

First, not all of our hits are clean winners. Stick will re-enter with an ace about a third of the time, after which we seem to have a pretty efficient cube. So we really only have 16 market losers.

Second, if we cube and then miss, do we get doubled out? Hardly - in fact, I don't know if Stick even has a redouble! Our take point would be around 10%, and our racing chances plus the slim chance that Stick won't get by surely add up to double digits. So I think this decision hinges in large part on what you think of Stick's redouble decision in this scenario.

My hunch is that it's a cube, mainly because we thereby take away Stick's power to use the cube against us after a bad sequence, but I'm really not sure.

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