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Daily Quiz 2/18

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 11:41 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/18 (Daily Quiz)

Daily Quiz 18 february 2012

Number 1:

After hitting with bx23, white has the chance of htting our 2-blot with 31%.

Since we have 32 pips left to play, meaning that we have 5 moves to throw a 6 after covering with 8/2, the chance of crunching the blue board is (25/36) ^5 = about 20%.

The hitchance is bigger than the crunch-chance so I play:

bx23 8/2

Number 2:

The chance of being hit the next move is about 6/36 * 16/36 = 7,5%. After that blue has to leave the anchor, so the total hitchance will stay below 15%,

on top of that I estimate blue’s racechance to be below 5%.

The total blue chance being below 20%:

Double/Pass

Number 3:

Compared to the opening move, what has changed?

13/5 is riskier

13/8 24/21 is a little bit riskier

24/16 is riskier

8/3 6/3 is more useful now since it pressures the white split:

8/3 6/3

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