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Daily Quiz 2/19 - Matches from PGH: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 6:24 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/119 - Matches from PGH (Daily Quiz)

I corrected the typo in the subject line (2/19) to make later searching easier.





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 145
9 point match
pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----b-EBC---cC---d-e-A-aA-:0:0:1:41:0:1:0:9:10
Blue to play 41

1.XG Roller+24/23* 13/9eq: +0.136
Player:
Opponent:
53.49% (G:13.02% B:0.47%)
46.51% (G:10.39% B:0.41%)
2.XG Roller+24/23* 6/2eq: +0.134 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:
54.10% (G:12.01% B:0.41%)
45.90% (G:10.45% B:0.41%)
3.XG Roller+24/20 21/20eq: +0.034 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:
51.29% (G:7.05% B:0.18%)
48.71% (G:5.97% B:0.15%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross






White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 141
9 point match
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bBCBB--A-Cb-cc-d-B-a--:0:0:1:32:0:6:0:9:10
Blue to play 32

1.XG Roller+13/10 11/9eq: +0.293
Player:
Opponent:
53.75% (G:9.23% B:0.29%)
46.25% (G:9.33% B:0.28%)
2.XG Roller+13/11 13/10eq: +0.268 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
53.25% (G:8.28% B:0.22%)
46.75% (G:8.06% B:0.22%)
3.XG Roller+11/9 6/3eq: +0.206 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:
51.13% (G:8.57% B:0.25%)
48.87% (G:8.75% B:0.27%)
4.XG Roller+13/11 6/3eq: +0.200 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
51.30% (G:7.61% B:0.18%)
48.70% (G:6.95% B:0.18%)
5.XG Roller+13/8eq: +0.191 (-0.101)
Player:
Opponent:
51.25% (G:7.29% B:0.18%)
48.75% (G:6.47% B:0.14%)
6.XG Roller+11/6eq: +0.168 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:
50.46% (G:7.29% B:0.19%)
49.54% (G:6.86% B:0.16%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

For money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bBCBB--A-Cb-cc-d-B-a--:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.XG Roller+13/10 11/9eq: +0.109
Player:
Opponent:
53.89% (G:10.19% B:0.35%)
46.11% (G:9.82% B:0.30%)
2.XG Roller+13/11 13/10eq: +0.094 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:
53.36% (G:9.11% B:0.28%)
46.64% (G:8.70% B:0.25%)
3.XG Roller+13/8eq: +0.037 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
51.37% (G:7.66% B:0.20%)
48.63% (G:6.79% B:0.15%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Variant for money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 150
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----bBCBB--A-Cc-cc-d-B----:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.XG Roller+13/11 6/3eq: +0.006
Player:
Opponent:
50.51% (G:7.12% B:0.19%)
49.49% (G:7.34% B:0.22%)
2.XG Roller+13/8eq: -0.004 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:
50.18% (G:7.11% B:0.18%)
49.82% (G:7.06% B:0.18%)
3.XG Roller+11/6eq: -0.014 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
49.77% (G:6.89% B:0.17%)
50.23% (G:7.03% B:0.19%)
4.XG Roller+13/11 13/10eq: -0.015 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:
49.95% (G:8.66% B:0.22%)
50.05% (G:8.69% B:0.29%)
5.XG Roller+13/10 11/9eq: -0.036 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:
49.57% (G:9.67% B:0.29%)
50.43% (G:9.89% B:0.33%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21


Truncated rollout:





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 40
9 point match
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBBBA---AA-----A-Abbe-:0:0:1:00:0:6:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 77.28% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.72% (G: 1.73% B: 0.06%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.85% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.15% (G: 1.68% B: 0.08%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.530
Double:+0.912
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.921
Double/Take:+0.871 (-0.050)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.079)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.914...+0.928)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.858...+0.884)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Truncated rollout for money (I don't entirely trust this result; even though I assessed this as ND/T for money, it doesn't seem that big a ND):





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 40
Money session
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--BBBBBA---AA-----A-Abbe-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 77.33% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.67% (G: 1.63% B: 0.05%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.83% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.17% (G: 1.54% B: 0.05%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.530
Double:+0.962
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.884
Double/Take:+0.794 (-0.090)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.116)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 2 moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Remaining moves: 2 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.875...+0.893)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.778...+0.810)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 26 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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