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Daily Quiz 2/18: XGR+ evals

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 23 February 2012, at 6:57 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/18: XGR+ evals (Timothy Chow)

The second position. Some totally uninteresting numbers.

Summary: no surprises. The game plays nearly the same in a money game and at 3a3a. Taker gets to redouble slightly more often at 3-away all, since the take point on the redouble is ~25%, instead of ~22%. But the take point on the initial double is higher at 3a3a. So it's a pass at 3a3a.

Trivia bonus: Blue is much more likely to hit White than White is to hit Blue! White hits in ~20% of games, Blue in ~35%.

Gnubg 2-ply 2592 trial rollouts.

Taker, Score 3a3a, D/T
Wins .2813
Single 4-cube .0713*1 =0.071373
Gammon 2-cube .0023*1 =0.002314
Single 2-cube .2075*0.7511=0.155915
Loses .7188
Single 2-cube .6678*0.2488=0.166168
Gammon 2-cube .0223*0 =0
Single 4-cube .0285*0 =0
Total ME 39.5770%
Pass ME 40.1006%
Difference -0.5235% (-0.0483 EMG)
Redouble to 4 29.74%
Take 9.99%
Pass 19.75%
Taker, Money game, D/T rollout
Wins .2774
Single 8-cube .0023*8 =0.0184
Single 4-cube .0632*4 =0.2528
Gammon 2-cube .0023*4 =0.0092
Single 2-cube .2094*2 =0.4188
Loses .7226
Single 2-cube .6817*2 =-1.3634
Gammon 2-cube .0216*4 =-0.0864
Single 4-cube .0150*4 =-0.0600
Single 8-cube .0038*8 =-0.0304
Single 16-cube .0003*16 =-0.0048
Total equity -0.8458
Pass equity -1.0000
Difference +0.1542
Redouble to 4 28.19%
Take 8.48%
Pass 19.71%

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