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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 27 February 2012, at 7:15 p.m.

In Response To: Checker Play and Cube Action at -2-4 (Paul Weaver)

Position 1.

		White is Lyurix score: 3 pip: 99 7 point match pip: 77 score: 5 Blue is peever
XGID=-BBCBaB-B-b--B---a-bbbbba-:0:0:1:63:5:3:0:7:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	13/7 8/5*	eq: +0.554
	Player: Opponent: 70.03% (G:18.24% B:0.07%) 29.97% (G:16.74% B:2.38%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.547...+0.560) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds
2.	Rollout2	8/2 8/5*	eq: +0.436 (-0.118)
	Player: Opponent: 64.06% (G:14.30% B:0.08%) 35.94% (G:7.22% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.425...+0.447) - [0.0%] Duration: 41.1 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 2.

		White is Lyurix score: 3 pip: 98 7 point match pip: 77 score: 5 Blue is peever
XGID=-BBCBaB-B-b--B----abbbbba-:0:0:1:63:5:3:0:7:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	13/7 8/5*	eq: +0.356
	Player: Opponent: 68.04% (G:16.78% B:0.08%) 31.96% (G:19.01% B:2.68%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.353...+0.359) - [70.5%] Duration: 9 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/2 8/5*	eq: +0.354 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 62.16% (G:12.65% B:0.07%) 37.84% (G:7.35% B:0.14%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.350...+0.359) - [29.5%] Duration: 11 minutes 11 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 3.

		White is Lyurix score: 3 pip: 104 7 point match pip: 68 score: 5 Blue is peever
XGID=aBBCBABAA-b--A---a-bbbbba-:0:0:-1:00:5:3:0:7:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	30.53% (G:16.33% B:2.09%)	30.01% (G:16.70% B:2.38%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	69.47% (G:22.84% B:0.20%)	69.99% (G:18.41% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.598	-0.554
Cubeful Equities
No double:	-0.530	±0.002 (-0.532..-0.528)
Double/Take:	-0.554 (-0.024)	±0.003 (-0.558..-0.551)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.530)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.5%
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 25 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 4.

		White is Lyurix score: 3 pip: 103 7 point match pip: 68 score: 5 Blue is peever
XGID=aBBCBABAA-b--A----abbbbba-:0:0:-1:00:5:3:0:7:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	32.19% (G:18.50% B:2.54%)	31.88% (G:19.03% B:2.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	67.81% (G:20.56% B:0.18%)	68.12% (G:16.86% B:0.12%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.498	-0.359
Cubeful Equities
No double:	-0.450 (-0.091)	±0.004 (-0.454..-0.446)
Double/Take:	-0.359	±0.006 (-0.365..-0.353)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+1.359)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 32 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 5.

		White is Lyurix score: 3 pip: 104 7 point match pip: 68 score: 5 Blue is peever
XGID=aBCCBAB---b--B---a-bbbbba-:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	80.09% (G:18.47% B:0.08%)	80.39% (G:16.44% B:0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	19.91% (G:3.22% B:0.14%)	19.61% (G:2.15% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.889	+1.715
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.858 (-0.070)	±0.004 (+0.855..+0.862)
Double/Take:	+0.928	±0.009 (+0.920..+0.937)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.072)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 24 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Position 6.

		White is Lyurix score: 3 pip: 103 7 point match pip: 68 score: 5 Blue is peever
XGID=aBCCBAB---b--B----abbbbba-:0:0:1:00:5:3:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.39% (G:17.17% B:0.13%)	79.71% (G:14.60% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.61% (G:3.38% B:0.14%)	20.29% (G:1.57% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.851	+1.710
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.831 (-0.035)	±0.004 (+0.827..+0.835)
Double/Take:	+0.866	±0.008 (+0.857..+0.874)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.134)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Checker Play and Cube Action at -2-4
  Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 26 February 2012, at 6:18 p.m.
  • Answer all 6 & win a Prize! *NM*
    Mr Majestyk -- Sunday, 26 February 2012, at 7:33 p.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted
    Paul Weaver -- Monday, 27 February 2012, at 7:15 p.m.
    • Would anybody leave 4 blots?
      David -- Monday, 27 February 2012, at 8:45 p.m.
    • Rollout Results Posted
      David Rockwell -- Monday, 27 February 2012, at 9:20 p.m.