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for the experts

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 29 February 2012, at 12:56 p.m.

In Response To: for the experts (alain31)

In 3,873 games, you won 297 points, or 162 less than the 459 you thought you should win. Applying Stig Eide's formula, if your games were money games your result seems normal -- not at all unusual.

"If you play n games, a 96% confidence interval for two equally good players is 0 +/- 5*sqrt(n) points.... If the players are of inequal strength, the 0 in the formula can be replaced with ppg*n." -- http://www.bkgm.com/rgb/rgb.cgi?view+709

ppg*n +/- 5*sqrt(n) =
0.123 * 3873 +/- 5 * sqrt(3873) =
476.379 +/- 5* 62.233 =
476 +/- 311

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