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My turn...

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Thursday, 1 March 2012, at 1:42 a.m.

In Response To: Our 55 - Rollout (Stick)

Alright, so there is some "controversy" or whatever over what plays we're actually voting on in this game. 65R-63 was too pedestrian, but the 55's got Stick all hot and bothered, and then the actual vote is too dull to even contemplate.

The person running the OLM has to make decisions every day about where to stop for a vote. Most of the decisions are actually pretty easy.

The moderator (here: me) is going to make mistakes. There are two types:

  • Nexting a position that should be voted on.
  • Calling for a vote on a position that everybody thinks is easy.

As far as I'm concerned, the second one, which makes Stick's OJ curdle, is NO BIG DEAL. What do you lose? A day. I *often* miss a day in posting positions, it's just as bad as that. The first mistake is the real egregious one. Apparently that's what happened with the 55.

So here's the deal: You can complain about the first mistake, but you can't have it both ways... if you want to complain about the threshhold, complain about the first one, and unless the second one is happening five times a week, either pipe down or find an OLM manager who's a better backgammon player.

Stick: I would prefer to next plays where I know not only is everyone going to vote the same way but they're also going to be correct.

Believe it or not, I agree.

Another type of play I would have nexted also just occurred and we voted on it. This is usually a bear in or bear off type of play where nobody in their right mind is going to make a choice outside of the X amount of normal choices and there is little equity at stake.

I refuse to believe that we can't learn something from these, nor is it always clear to me that they're all within a smidgen of each other.

Then there are the plays that every donkey under the sun will get right. No need for examples there. What plays shouldn't we be nexting? Well, what I did when running it was to first look at the play myself and figure out my confidence level in the play and how quickly I got there. If it was at a glance and I knew for sure that was the right play it was likely I was going to next it. I didn't stop there though, since I didn't need to vote, I would also hit the XGR+ button and double check that no plays were close or I didn't overlook something. Jason could do this also if he first decided on his play since he likes to vote.

Bam, I do that a lot, and I did that with this 55. I was reasonably confident that 6/1*(2) was right, decided on my reasoning, and then fired up XGR++. This is what I got:





White is XG Roller++

score: 2
pip: 145
15 point match
pip: 166
score: 9

Blue is BGO Readers
XGID=-a----E-C-A-eD---cad----aB:0:0:1:55:9:2:0:15:10
Blue to play 55
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/20(2) 6/1*(2) eq: +0.134
Player:
Opponent:		53.98% (G:16.86% B:0.20%)
46.02% (G:6.68% B:0.19%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/15(2)eq: +0.086 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		54.56% (G:8.33% B:0.21%)
45.44% (G:6.50% B:0.13%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/20(2) 8/3(2)eq: +0.074 (-0.061)
Player:
Opponent:		52.58% (G:14.82% B:0.35%)
47.42% (G:6.72% B:0.17%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

To which I said, "Oh dang, I picked the right play, and it was right by 48 mills, better not put this one to a vote, they'll all holler NEXT!!! at me."

TL;DR: If you want to complain that I just NEXTed a position you think should be voted on, fire away, your complaint is probably legitimate. If you want to complain that I just put up a vote on a stupid position that should have been a NEXT: well, Jimmy Crack Corn, and I don't care.

JLee

P.S. I'm not upset about anything... I'm just trying to quell the natives.

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