It looks like the indirect shots are too costly here.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 13
pip: 137 | | 25 point match | pip: 138
score: 20
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----b-E-D--AcE---bada--b--:0:0:1:31:20:13:0:25:10 |
| Blue to play 31 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/10 11/10 | eq: +0.135 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.52% (G:2.70% B:0.04%)
42.48% (G:3.03% B:0.03%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 8/5 6/5 | eq: +0.107 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56.31% (G:4.64% B:0.21%)
43.69% (G:3.60% B:0.07%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
  
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 19
pip: 139 | | 25 point match | pip: 107
score: 22
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b--DADbB-B--B----bbcbb---:0:0:1:32:22:19:0:25:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 6/3 5/3 | eq: +0.441 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.75% (G:14.42% B:0.53%)
36.25% (G:6.45% B:0.16%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 8/6 8/5 | eq: +0.359 (-0.082) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.51% (G:14.96% B:0.65%)
38.49% (G:6.51% B:0.20%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 5/2 4/2 | eq: +0.347 (-0.094) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.45% (G:14.73% B:0.52%)
38.55% (G:7.41% B:0.21%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Missed the priming plays, doggone it! However, even if we hit, 13/9 is apparently an error. I'm not sure I understand why. Good DQR candidate in any case.
   
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 124 | | 9 point match | pip: 158
score: 2
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a-BCAB-B-bC---e-d-c--B-:0:0:1:22:2:1:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/9(2) | eq: +0.041 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55.57% (G:11.98% B:0.51%)
44.43% (G:16.87% B:1.54%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 24/22(2) 7/3* | eq: -0.033 (-0.074) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.51% (G:12.37% B:0.39%)
48.49% (G:13.18% B:0.49%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 24/22(2) 5/3*(2) | eq: -0.051 (-0.092) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.33% (G:12.77% B:0.43%)
49.67% (G:12.24% B:0.53%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 13/9 7/3* | eq: -0.087 (-0.128) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.31% (G:14.63% B:0.56%)
48.69% (G:17.70% B:1.75%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 13/9 5/3*(2) | eq: -0.087 (-0.128) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.26% (G:14.67% B:0.56%)
49.74% (G:16.18% B:1.53%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 6/4 | eq: -0.090 (-0.131) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.63% (G:11.61% B:0.45%)
49.37% (G:14.35% B:1.30%) | |
|
| 7. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 10/8 | eq: -0.095 (-0.135) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.60% (G:12.29% B:0.47%)
50.40% (G:13.66% B:1.07%) | |
|
| 8. | XG Roller+ | 13/11(2) 5/3*(2) | eq: -0.098 (-0.139) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.40% (G:15.34% B:0.61%)
49.60% (G:17.29% B:1.80%) | |
|
| 9. | XG Roller+ | 13/11 7/3* 5/3 | eq: -0.149 (-0.190) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.60% (G:14.74% B:0.58%)
50.40% (G:18.49% B:1.89%) | |
|
| 10. | XG Roller+ | 13/11 10/8 7/3* | eq: -0.161 (-0.202) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.71% (G:13.51% B:0.52%)
50.29% (G:18.05% B:1.87%) | |
|
| 11. | XG Roller+ | 13/11 13/7 | eq: -0.168 (-0.209) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.95% (G:11.24% B:0.43%)
51.05% (G:15.22% B:1.30%) | |
|
| 12. | XG Roller+ | 13/11(2) 7/3* | eq: -0.173 (-0.214) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.35% (G:13.85% B:0.53%)
50.65% (G:18.63% B:1.95%) | |
|
| 13. | XG Roller+ | 24/22(2) 13/11 7/5 | eq: -0.177 (-0.217) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.19% (G:10.52% B:0.35%)
53.81% (G:10.45% B:0.39%) | |
|
| 14. | XG Roller+ | 24/22(2) 13/9 | eq: -0.178 (-0.219) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.20% (G:10.49% B:0.40%)
51.80% (G:15.04% B:0.57%) | |
|
| 15. | XG Roller+ | 10/4 6/4 | eq: -0.190 (-0.231) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.08% (G:10.93% B:0.42%)
51.92% (G:14.97% B:1.25%) | |
|
| 16. | XG Roller+ | 24/20 7/3* | eq: -0.202 (-0.243) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.47% (G:12.34% B:0.49%)
51.53% (G:18.91% B:1.07%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Variant (here I can see that 24/22(2) helps guard the outfield in case White enters and tries to play the spare off the midpoint):
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 129 | | 9 point match | pip: 158
score: 2
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a-BCAB-B-cC---d-d-c--B-:0:0:1:22:2:1:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/9(2) | eq: -0.059 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.67% (G:12.44% B:0.55%)
47.33% (G:17.25% B:1.58%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 24/22(2) 5/3*(2) | eq: -0.072 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.00% (G:12.96% B:0.39%)
51.00% (G:11.38% B:0.46%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 24/22(2) 7/3* | eq: -0.076 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.12% (G:12.13% B:0.37%)
49.88% (G:12.71% B:0.49%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 6/4 | eq: -0.179 (-0.120) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.57% (G:11.06% B:0.40%)
51.43% (G:14.94% B:1.34%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 13/11(2) 5/3*(2) | eq: -0.188 (-0.128) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.18% (G:14.01% B:0.53%)
51.82% (G:17.57% B:1.74%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 13/9 7/3* | eq: -0.188 (-0.129) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.02% (G:13.55% B:0.51%)
50.98% (G:18.09% B:1.75%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
Another variant:
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 134 | | 9 point match | pip: 158
score: 2
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---a-BCAB-B-dC---c-d-c--B-:0:0:1:22:2:1:0:9:10 |
| Blue to play 22 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 24/22(2) 7/3* | eq: -0.047 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.21% (G:13.46% B:0.42%)
49.79% (G:12.36% B:0.52%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 24/22(2) 5/3*(2) | eq: -0.060 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.26% (G:13.36% B:0.38%)
50.74% (G:10.81% B:0.47%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 13/9(2) | eq: -0.135 (-0.088) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.67% (G:11.77% B:0.47%)
49.33% (G:17.09% B:1.51%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross