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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 2/29
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/29 (Daily Quiz)
Date: Friday, 2 March 2012, at 1:37 a.m.
1. If we refuse to leave any shots then the only candidates are 6/1 3/1 and 7/5 7/2, of which 7/5 7/2 looks better. If we're willing to leave shots then 7/5 6/1 would be my preference, since it makes a home-board point and leaves a minimum of shots (compared to breaking the 18pt or 13pt). ATS we have to be careful about losing gammons. At first glance that would seem to suggest leaving no shots, but leaving two blots in our board that aren't so easy to cover doesn't look so good and I'm not even sure it loses fewer gammons. I'll try 7/5 6/1.
2. We have four legal plays to look at. 3/1 is the obvious play and I don't think 5/3 can be better than 3/1. 3/1 gives White 26 rolls to make a six-prime, after which Blue's winning chances are pretty bleak; less than 10% I think. The banana split 6/4* gives White 9 dancing rolls and 27 hitting rolls. It'll lose a ton of gammons but we don't care much about gammon losses (though we do care about backgammon losses). Even if White dances, though, we're hardly home free. It seems too crazy. The final option is 8/6, getting ready to kill 6's and exploiting the duplication of White's 4's. Again it loses more gammons but we don't care much. But it still seems that our best chances of winning lie in hoping that White doesn't make the six-prime and that we get a shot, so I think we should cover our blot. I play the obvious bar/24 3/1.
3. Backgammons don't matter ATS, but White's gammon value is nearly 1. What's the best way to save the gammon? If White rolls 1x, do we want her to be able to play it with 2/1*? That guarantees us an immediate direct shot that we might not otherwise get, and we'll still have some chances to hit a second or even third checker if we make a random point somewhere that forces White to play 2/1 sometime down the line. On the other hand, if we hold the 24pt anchor now, and White rolls 1x, then we'll still get a direct shot unless White rolls doublets, and we'll have two blots to shoot at if White rolls 1x again. This variation takes a slightly greater risk of not getting a shot at all but I think it gives us a better chance of hitting two checkers. How important is it to hit a second checker in order to get off the gammon? It seems pretty important. This is a tough call but I'll try holding the anchor with 14/6.
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