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Daily Quiz 2/29

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 2 March 2012, at 2:53 p.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 2/29 (RobertFontaine)

In (3), you may have missed that the cube's on two already so backgammons are irrelevant. Gammon loses the match. How can Blue save the gammon?

24/18 14/12 ... ace ... hit is a 10/36*11/36=8.4% chance, but saving the gammon after that seems very unlikely. Nigel's play 14/6 ... ace ... any ... another ace ... hit ? is a 10/36*1*10/36 * 20/36 = 4.2% chance with good chances to hit the second blot eventually. For gammon saving, a goodly portion of 4% seems better than a very small part of 8%.

Both plays also give a chance (not exactly the same chance) of hitting if White rolls an ace on his second turn but not his first. In those sequences, Blue should be able to contain the last checker a little more often after 14/6 (or my play 14/8 13/11 or 14/8 X-X) than after 24/18 14/12 because Blue seems to be a little better able to hit and make a board point or two and still be able to keep hitting.

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