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nor do I

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 2 March 2012, at 5:09 p.m.

In Response To: nor do I (Chuck Bower)

Ok, (1) Blue must hit to save the gammon and (2) blocking points and more checkers in Blue's outfield will help, after a hit. 14/8 and a two seems a little better for preparing for blocking than 24/16 and a 2. What about the hits?

(A) Run one checker from the 24 point. Blue hits:

8.49% (13th checker) + 4.84% (15th checker), and that's all.

(B) Don't run from the 24 point. Blue hits:

4.17% (14th checker) + 9.42% (15th checker)

And that's not all, since Blue gets a few more hits for having blocked White-s 1-1 on either his first or second turn.

So, two things:

(1) I think Blue may actually find it easier to contain the 15th checker than the 13th checker, because he'll have more checkers ready to hit and block, etc.

(2) Hitting the 14th checker with the 15th checker exposed is surely better than hitting either the 13th checker and few ways to force White to break the 2 point, or hitting the 15th checker.

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