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GNU luck factor

Posted By: David Levy
Date: Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 2:43 p.m.

In Response To: GNU luck factor (Stick)

Seems right to me. Say you were guaranteed to get off in one roll (ignoring the miss with 2-1). Readers win 1/6 of the time and lose 5/6 of the time for equity of -.6667. Non-doubles reduce the equity to -1.0 and cost a third of a point. (the reported -.315 is lower because of the 2-1 miss). Doubles increase the equity to +1.0 and gain one and two-thirds point.

Just because it's the most likely outcome, even strongly so, doesn't mean that it is unlucky.

Messages In This Thread

• GNU luck factor
  Stick -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 9:20 a.m.
  • GNU luck factor
    David Levy -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 2:43 p.m.
    • GNU luck factor
      Stick -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 2:53 p.m.
      • GNU luck factor
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 3:00 p.m.
        • GNU luck factor
          Stick -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 3:03 p.m.
          • GNU luck factor
            Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 3:09 p.m.
          • GNU luck factor
            Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 4:43 p.m.
            • GNU luck factor
              Keene -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 5:16 p.m.
            • GNU luck factor
              Stick -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 5:42 p.m.
              • GNU luck factor
                Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 9:34 p.m.
                • GNU luck factor
                  Stick -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 11:28 p.m.
                  • GNU luck factor
                    happyjuggler0 -- Thursday, 4 October 2007, at 5:33 a.m.
              • GNU luck factor
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 4 October 2007, at 5:34 a.m.
          • GNU luck factor
            Christian Anthon -- Thursday, 4 October 2007, at 9:32 a.m.
            • GNU luck factor
              Stick -- Thursday, 4 October 2007, at 3:38 p.m.
              • GNU luck factor
                Matt Reklaitis -- Thursday, 4 October 2007, at 8:42 p.m.
                • GNU luck factor
                  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 4 October 2007, at 8:46 p.m.
                  • GNU luck factor
                    Stick -- Thursday, 4 October 2007, at 9:16 p.m.
              • GNU luck factor
                Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 5 October 2007, at 1:27 a.m.
      • GNU luck factor
        David Levy -- Thursday, 4 October 2007, at 4:13 a.m.
    • GNU luck factor
      Frank Berger -- Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 3:08 p.m.