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GNU luck factor

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Wednesday, 3 October 2007, at 4:43 p.m.

In Response To: GNU luck factor (Stick)

If you roll a pair of dice 1000 times and never once roll 6-6, that is unlucky, right? But if you roll a pair of dice once and don't get 6-6, that's not unlucky, is it?

Maybe it is. After all, if a single non 6-6 is not bad luck, how can it be that 1000 non 6-6's is bad luck? The mathematical answer is that failing to roll 6-6 even once is "a little bit" unlucky. Multiply "a little bit" by 1000 and you get "a lot".

You're right that the mathematical definition of luck doesn't seem to agree with the "common sense" definition of luck. But the common sense definition of luck leads to inconsistencies. The mathematical definition of luck is very useful if you understand what it means.

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