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BGonline.org Forums
It just ain't fair...
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: It just ain't fair... (Chuck Bower)
Date: Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 12:21 a.m.
The only play that doesn't break our board is 22/20(2) 6/2, but I think that gives up too much contact, so I'm breaking the board.
Usually one breaks from the back, but I think this is an exception. The usual purpose of breaking from the back is so that you won't have to break another point if you roll another small number, and to maintain efficiency for the race. But here, we're breaking only because we rolled an anti-joker and we're not likely to have to break another point. It's important to try to contain any blot we hit, and for that purpose, keeping the higher points intact so that White will dance with high rolls from the bar is important. So I would break the 3pt here.
That still leaves several decisions. Do we split? And how do we play the remaining two (or three) 2's after 3/1? If we don't split then 6/3 3/1(2) seems indicated. If we do split then we have 22/20 6/4 3/1 and then a choice between 3/1 and 4/2.
As usual I don't think one can get around going through all the rolls to decide whether to split. Splitting gains a lot if White rolls 61 51, and gains slightly if White rolls 62 52. It loses when White rolls 44 42 41 22 21. I think it might also lose when White rolls 32 or 11. There aren't enough immediate gains for me to justify splitting. So I guess I play 6/2 3/1(2).
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