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You already know whether you're going to take or drop

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 6:39 p.m.

In Response To: You already know whether you're going to take or drop (Keene)

Blue's winning chances are pretty darn good, being about a roll ahead of White.

What's a roll worth? Some references:

White	8
Blue	6
Position ID: /wAAAH4AAAAAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

Blue wins 98.09% cubeless or if White has the cube.

White	10
Blue	8
Position ID: /wMAAPgHAAAAAA Match ID: cAlAAAAAAAAE

Blue wins 95.68% cubeless or if White holds the cube.

White	12
Blue	10
Position ID: /w8AAOB/AAAAAA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAE

Blue wins 93.48% cubeless and 93.28% if White holds the cube. White's extra 0.20% wins come from rolling two doublets to Blue's none and doubling Blue out in a 2-roll position -- 5/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 1 = 0.1607%, instead of 5/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 + 5/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 1/6 * 5/6 * 1/6 = 0.1384%.

White	14
Blue	12
Position ID: /z8AAID/BwAAAA Match ID: QQlAAAAAAAAE

Blue wins 91.42% cubeless and 90.79% if White holds the cube, since White can now reach either a 3-roll or 2-roll position on roll.

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In the original position White should be able to use the cube slightly more often -- for example, White can reach a last-roll position after Double/Take B51 W66 B51 W32 B31 W32 B61 -- but not much more. I'd play 11/6 5/4 -- 11/5 would be great if White would roll 5-5 before 4-X, but White is much more likely to roll 4-X first. I don't see how 11/6 2/1 could be better than 11/6 5/4. Maybe it is in a few sequences.

Messages In This Thread

• You already know whether you're going to take or drop
  Keene -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 4:22 p.m.
  • You already know whether you're going to take or drop
    Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 6 March 2012, at 6:39 p.m.