Nice insight, Neil.
Looks like: Make the bigger play so long as you can use the cube to get ourself out of trouble.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 75 | | 7 point match | pip: 39 score: 2
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=-BDCBaB------a--aa--a-dcc-:1:-1:1:41:2:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 4/Off 1/Off | eq: +1.003 |
| Player: Opponent: | 98.82% (G:2.86% B:0.01%) 1.18% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.002...+1.004) - [100.0%] Duration: 29.2 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 4/Off 2/1 | eq: +0.992 (-0.011) |
| Player: Opponent: | 98.76% (G:1.97% B:0.01%) 1.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.991...+0.993) - [0.0%] Duration: 31.2 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 4/Off 3/2 | eq: +0.990 (-0.013) |
| Player: Opponent: | 98.68% (G:1.96% B:0.01%) 1.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.989...+0.991) - [0.0%] Duration: 30.1 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 6/5* 5/1 | eq: +0.971 (-0.032) |
| Player: Opponent: | 91.18% (G:16.94% B:0.14%) 8.82% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.968...+0.973) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 6/2 6/5* | eq: +0.968 (-0.035) |
| Player: Opponent: | 91.78% (G:15.47% B:0.08%) 8.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.966...+0.971) - [0.0%] Duration: 49.2 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 75 | | 7 point match | pip: 39 score: 2
Blue is Player 1 | |
| XGID=-BDCBaB------a--aa--a-dcc-:0:0:1:41:2:0:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/5* 5/1 | eq: +1.053 |
| Player: Opponent: | 90.72% (G:17.26% B:0.15%) 9.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.050...+1.057) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/2 6/5* | eq: +1.036 (-0.017) |
| Player: Opponent: | 91.57% (G:15.55% B:0.08%) 8.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+1.032...+1.040) - [0.0%] Duration: 48.3 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 4/Off 1/Off | eq: +1.017 (-0.036) |
| Player: Opponent: | 98.70% (G:2.82% B:0.01%) 1.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.015...+1.019) - [0.0%] Duration: 55.2 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 4/Off 3/2 | eq: +1.007 (-0.046) |
| Player: Opponent: | 98.44% (G:2.12% B:0.01%) 1.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.006...+1.008) - [0.0%] Duration: 36.0 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2